{"id":1615,"date":"2022-05-04T11:48:29","date_gmt":"2022-05-04T15:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/js1cd06kre.onrocket.site\/?p=1615"},"modified":"2022-05-04T11:48:29","modified_gmt":"2022-05-04T15:48:29","slug":"the-decision-of-a-lifetime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/04\/the-decision-of-a-lifetime\/","title":{"rendered":"The Decision of a Lifetime"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It’s your ultimate game show fantasy.
\u00a0
You\u2019re the last contestant standing with Monty Hall on the original Let\u2019s Make a Deal.\u00a0<\/em>
\u00a0
Aside from the fact you\u2019re dressed in an outfit that will embarrass your grandchildren when they watch the reruns years later, you now have a choice that could potentially yield significant rewards:\u00a0 Do you want what\u2019s behind Door #1, Door #2, or Door #3?
\u00a0
Everybody knows there\u2019s a car behind one of those doors.\u00a0 The other two doors are hiding what the producers of the show called Zonks: maybe a chimpanzee riding a scooter or 50 pounds of eggplant.
\u00a0
What are the odds you will choose the car?\u00a0 That\u2019s pretty easy:\u00a0 One in three.
\u00a0
But Monty Hall loves to turn up the drama.\u00a0 Do you want to stick to your guns, or would you rather exchange the door you chose for what Jay has in the box?\u00a0 Of course, Jay may have nothing more than a Zonk-in-the-Box.\u00a0 You cross your fingers and decide to hang on to your door.
\u00a0
That\u2019s when Monty says, \u201cLet\u2019s see what\u2019s behind one of the doors you didn\u2019t<\/u><\/em> choose.\u201d\u00a0 And he reveals one of the Zonks.
\u00a0
Then he turns to you and asks those fateful words: \u201cSo, do you want to stick with your original choice, or would you like to switch doors?\u201d\u00a0 The crowd is going bonkers, screaming this and screaming that.
\u00a0
What should you do?\u00a0 That very question was presented a few years ago to hundreds of mathematicians.\u00a0
\u00a0
Almost all of them gave the wrong answer.
\u00a0
The mathematicians focused on the fact that one of the doors has the car, while the other doesn\u2019t. \u00a0Your odds of being right are 50-50.\u00a0 So what you decide to do doesn\u2019t really matter, does it?\u00a0 Someone in your position will get the car exactly half the time.
\u00a0
\u201cThat\u2019s an attractive view,\u201d says William Goldbloom Bloch, professor of mathematics at Wheaton College in Massachusetts.\u00a0 \u201cBut it\u2019s the wrong view.\u201d
\u00a0
Bloch points out that according to game theory, you should always<\/u><\/em> switch doors.\u00a0 That\u2019s because switching doors gives you a two-thirds probability of winning.\u00a0
\u00a0
First, ignore all the distractions, like your screaming family members in the front row and the wad of $100 bills Monty is now trying to foist upon you, essentially to buy your vote.\u00a0 Then review the numbers.
\u00a0
When the game began you had a one-third chance to pick the right door. There was a two-thirds chance you had blown it.\u00a0 The only time that switching is wrong would be if you had picked the correct door from the beginning.\u00a0 Again, what were the odds of that?\u00a0 One-third.\u00a0 Now that you\u2019ve seen one of the Zonks, that door has been eliminated. The history of Let\u2019s Make a Deal <\/em>reveals that two-thirds<\/u><\/em> of the time \u2013 not 50-50 \u2013 contestants who decide to switch doors will get the car.\u00a0
\u00a0
It\u2019s decidedly counter-intuitive, and Professor Bloch sighs that so many mathematicians missed it. \u00a0But as they say in the world of sports reporting, the numbers never lie.\u00a0
\u00a0
Maybe you will never stand on a game show stage within reach of a new BMW or a big foam check made out to you for a million dollars.\u00a0 No mind.\u00a0 You\u2019re playing, right now, for much higher stakes.
\u00a0
Here\u2019s what God said to the Israelites as they stood on the frontier of the Promised Land: \u201cSee, I set before you today life and prosperity, death and destruction\u2026 Now choose life, so that you and your children may live and that you may love the Lord your God, listen to his voice, and hold fast to him.\u00a0 For the Lord is your life!\u201d (Deuteronomy 30:15, 19-20)
\u00a0
Ignore all the distractions.\u00a0 Make the right choice.
\u00a0
You can choose bitterness.
Or ambition.
Or having a lot of stuff.
Or getting your own way.<\/em>
\u00a0
Or you can choose Life.\u00a0

That\u2019s the real grand prize.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s your ultimate game show fantasy.\u00a0You\u2019re the last contestant standing with Monty Hall on the original Let\u2019s Make a Deal.\u00a0\u00a0Aside from the fact you\u2019re dressed in an outfit that will embarrass your grandchildren when they watch the reruns years later, you now have a choice that could potentially yield significant rewards:\u00a0 Do you want what\u2019s behind Door #1, Door #2,… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[433],"class_list":["post-1615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-choose-life"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1615"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1617,"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1615\/revisions\/1617"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glennsreflections.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}